Nvidia Stock Soars, Then Plunges

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On the evening of January 7, 2025, American stock markets were buzzing with anticipation, with major indices opening highAmong them, Nvidia saw its share price soar by over 2%, reaching an all-time highHowever, the joy was short-lived, as the stock quickly plummeted, dropping by more than 6% at one pointAs the market closed, Nvidia's share was down by 4.76%, standing at $142.31, and its market capitalization hovered around a staggering $3.48 trillion.

Significant developments came from the CES 2025 exhibition in Las Vegas, where Nvidia’s charismatic CEO, Jensen Huang, took center stage to unveil a host of groundbreaking technological innovationsThese included the new RTX 50 series GPUs, AI supercomputers, next-generation automotive driving chips dubbed Thor, and the newly launched Cosmos world fundamental modelHuang's speech encapsulated a vision where "GeForce brought AI to households, and now AI will return the favor to GeForce," indicating a full circle in technological integration.

On the first day of the CES 2025 expo, Huang also shed light on Nvidia's collaborations within the automotive sectorNotable partnerships highlighted were with industry giants such as Tesla, BYD, Jaguar Land Rover, Li Auto, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Rivian, Xiaomi Automotive, Volvo, Lucid Motors, and ZeekrThis extensive network showcased Nvidia's ambitious plans to become a linchpin in the world of automotive technology.

However, a conspicuous omission from this distinguished list was NIO and Xpeng Motors, both of whom had announced their intention to develop self-researched driving chips in the previous yearDespite NIO's ES8 and Xpeng's P7 models traditionally featuring Nvidia's chips, some analysts speculate that these companies are gradually reducing their dependency on Nvidia as they transition to homegrown chip development.

Nvidia’s extensive partnerships in China reflect its significant foothold in the automotive chip marketIn his two-hour keynote address at the CES, Huang revealed not just the new GPU line but also discussed collaborations that will define the automotive landscape in the near future

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For instance, Toyota is set to develop next-generation vehicles on Nvidia's DRIVE AGX Orin platform, powered by the certified Nvidia DriveOS operating systemFurthermore, a collaboration with self-driving technology companies Aurora and Continental Group aims to deploy driverless trucks on a large scale, integrating Nvidia's technology into their manufacturing processes.

Zeekr announced that it has become the world’s first OEM to launch a proprietary Nvidia DRIVE AGX Thor intelligent driving domain controller platformAccording to official sources, this platform, meticulously developed by the Zeekr team, boasts twice the computing power of previous models while maintaining energy efficiency and offering extensive communication and sensor interfacesThis promises an enriching AI-enabled driving experience, with the first mass-produced autonomous vehicle from Zeekr, the RT model, expected to roll out in large numbers by 2025.

In 2023, the data showcased by Automotive Industry Insights indicated that Nvidia maintained a dominant market share in the automotive chip sectorSpecifically, Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) chip came in first for deployment in smart driving domain control chips, with approximately 1.208 million units shipped, capturing a significant 37% shareNvidia’s Orin-X chip followed closely in second place, with 1.095 million units sold, accounting for 33.5% of the market.

Nvidia's collaborations extend further, encompassing multiple Chinese automobile manufacturers and autonomous driving companiesFor instance, the partnership with Great Wall Motors in January 2024 revolves around a high-end intelligent driving system named Coffee Pilot, built on the DRIVE Orin platform, capable of handling various driving scenarios without the need for high-precision maps.

The absence of Xpeng and NIO in Nvidia's list of partners has led to various speculationsAnalysts believe this may stem from the successful results of their independent chip development efforts

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Moreover, delays and complications surrounding Nvidia’s Thor chip release have added to the uncertaintyCompanies like Xpeng and NIO may have opted for alternative solutions to mitigate risks associated with the supply chain, especially considering the high profit margins—up to 90%—involved in Nvidia’s chips, which significantly inflate procurement costs.

The repercussions of Nvidia's Thor chip delays have spurred car manufacturers to enhance their chip self-research capabilitiesInitially unveiled at Nvidia's GTC conference in 2022, the Thor chip promised remarkable processing power of 2000 TFLOPS, double that of its predecessorsDespite initial projections of mass production in 2024, subsequent revisions indicated a potential timeline pushing to 2025 and then, most recently, to 2027 for widespread production.

Industry expert Jiang Han from the Pangu Institute recently commented on the implications of potential shortages in the supply chain for smart driving chips: "A squeeze in the availability of intelligent driving chips will inevitably disrupt automotive manufacturers’ research and production schedulesThis could lead to an accelerated reshaping of the automotive chip sector, steering it towards greater autonomy and self-sufficiency." Amidst such a backdrop, numerous automakers are reevaluating their timelines for product releases, prompting a shift toward developing in-house chip solutions.

During the 2023 Xpeng AI Technology Day, Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng unveiled the company’s self-researched "Turing AI Chip." This innovative chip, featuring a 40-core processor designed specifically for AI mega-models, exhibits the potential for applications across diverse fields such as AI-driven vehicles, robotics, and aerial vehiclesSimilarly, NIO announced the rollout of its smart driving chip "Shenji NX9031" in September 2023, marking significant strides in their chip design efforts.

Traditional automotive companies like BYD and Dongfeng Motor Group are not far behind, actively investing in their research or in the broader chip industry, covering everything from vehicle body control chips to intelligent cockpit chips and autonomous driving chips

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